By: Mike Carter
A word of caution on any free agent predictions: the collective bargaining agreement runs out on December 2nd. At this time, unless there is a considerable thaw between ownership and the players association, we should anticipate a lockout that could last months. Word on the street this week was that some teams and players may be looking to sign this month before the CBA expires. The benefit to that would be cost certainly for teams ahead of the CBA running out, and a guarantee for players moving forward after the CBA comes to agreement later. For teams that are not worried about the competitive balance tax, they could strike early and fast this month. And there are teams that appear to have lots of money to spend based on their current payroll situations. A quick glance shows Texas, Seattle and Detroit as possible big spenders in free agency this offseason.
Kris Bryant: Did you see Scott Boras’ poem about Bryant last week? Clever. I for one am hopeful that Bryant will get a huge contract. He’s so versatile, playing all three outfield positions, and both corner infield spots as well. Plus, he can hit anywhere in the lineup. A savvy team can deploy his talent in a variety of ways. Bryant is a West Coast guy, so maybe the Mariners make a play for him after cutting ties with Kyle Seager this winter? They have a glut of outfield options so they could lock him into third base there. The Giants could resign him, especially with the funds freed up from Buster Posey’s retirement and if they decide to move on from Brandon Belt. But I think the Mets will be in play and blow everyone out of the water with a huger offer and lure him to pay there. They have the look of a team wanting to spend money wildly.
Robbie Ray: Who is Robbie Ray? Which version of him are you signing? The guy who was 13-7 with a 2.84 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 248 strikeouts in 2021? Or the guy who is 62-58 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in his career? The truth is likely in the middle. With the number of HR’s he gives up (29 in 32 starts last year), any uptick in WHIP, especially with walks, will slide his regression further into the middle. Regression is harsh and unforgiving. But the strikeouts will be there, and he can go deep into games and eat lots of innings. Toronto makes the most sense to me, as they need pitching to be able to compete in the beastly AL East. I would not be surprised if the Red Sox made a run here as well. The Angels are known to be looking for starting pitching and could easily be in play here as well.
Trevor Story: Similar to Ray, who is Trevor Story? People will point to the home and road splits, and here those are for 2021:
Home: .296, 11 home runs, 47 RBI, 10 steals, a .365 OBP, .880 OPS
Road: .203, 13 home runs, 28 RBI, 10 steals, a .292 OBP, .717 OPS
I get those splits, but this guy has been a high performer and is just turning 29 this week. He plays a premium position as a shortstop, and many teams are looking for one. I know my beloved White Sox had interest in him at the trade deadline and wanted him to play second base for them. Teams like the Yankees will definitely kick the tires on Story. The Detroit Tigers, while linked to Carlos Correa early on, could pivot easily to Story. The Angels could have interest as well and have deep pockets. One thing I would bank on: he will not return to Colorado.
Javier Baez: This just feels like a move the Mets will make to keep him as Francisco Lindor’s keystone partner for years to come. His flash and dash play well there. But will he play second base? He did last year, willingly, and well. My bet is he stays in Flushing.
Chris Taylor: Taylor is a true jack of all trades. He can play all three outfield spots and the infield as well in a pinch. A utility guy for years, he rejected the Dodgers’ qualifying offer and will test the free agent market and will cash in this winter. I think he would fit in great with the White Sox, playing second base mostly but being used all over the field to replace super sub Leury Garcia. But it will take a multiyear offer to get him, and he’s 31. The Dodgers have 12 free agents this winter, and they probably need him more than anyone with the way they love positional versatility. I could also see a team like the Philadelphia Phillies making a run at him as well, as they need help at both CF and 2B.
Raisel Iglesias: Iglesias is an interesting case. He and Kenley Jansen are the top closers on the market. It also looks like Craig Kimbrel may be available via trade this offseason. Which teams would view signing a closer of his caliber as the next step for their teams? Toronto leaps to mind, but Jordan Romano did a nice job there in 2021, and they may lean towards keeping him in that role, unless they turn him into a multiple inning weapon/stopper. Texas could be in play here as well; they have been telling baseball people, allegedly, that they are looking to spend $100 million on next year’s roster. That could make sense in a division where both Houston and Oakland could be down next year.
Clayton Kershaw: My gut (and my gut is sizable these days) tells me that the Dodgers’ top brass knows something about Kershaw that we don’t know. I am worried that arm injury is more significant than we know. What we do know about Kershaw is that if healthy, he is a difference maker for a team in contention. Who is going to take the risk, and what do they get? I could see an up-and-coming team doing a two year deal similar to what San Diego did with Mike Clevinger; they knew they would not get anything out of him in 2021 and parlayed that contract into 2022.
Justin Verlander: Earlier in the week we learned that Verlander threw a 25-pitch showcase for interested teams and was sitting comfortably in the 94-95 MPH range. He hit as high as 97 and is now about 13 months past his Tommy John surgery. I don’t think he goes back to Houston. I wonder if he wants to try and max out his free agency here. While he has had a remarkable career, is anyone going to be brave enough to offer him a multiyear deal given his age (39 in February 2022)? My hunch is he gets a high annual average ($20+ million) on a one-year deal for a team who thinks they can win it all in 2022. The Yankees seem like a fit on the surface.
Hot Stove Free Agent Predictions Part 1
Hot Stove Free Agent Predictions Part 3