By: Mike Carter
I have an amazing front porch on my house, replete with a table and comfortable chairs where I drink good coffee every morning. I have been contemplative on my front porch during the quarantine. Sadly I have not been thinking as much about frivolous things like baseball; moreover, I have been trying to keep myself and my family safe.
My thoughts go out to those all over the world who are suffering through this pandemic. For most of us in our lifetimes, our country faces almost unprecedented chaos and confusion. A pandemic. An economic collapse. Rioting and looting in the streets of some of our largest cities. I will let those far smarter than me comment on these things. I wish all of you who read this health and safety during these trying times.
What do you talk about in a baseball blog when there is no baseball?
I am going to introduce you to who I hope is the next big thing in baseball: the White Sox shiny new toy and burgeoning center fielder, Luis Robert.
Robert is a soon-to-be 23 year old born and raised in Cuba. He is a physical specimen rarely seen in baseball at 6’3” and 190 pounds. You may have heard about the contract he signed over the winter: six years, $50 million for a guy who has not played one inning or had one at bat in the major leagues. You may naturally ask, why would a team do that? Let me share the rationale.
Robert played at three levels last year in the White Sox minor league system, A through AAA. The numbers are staggering: 32 home runs, 92 RBI, 11 triples, 31 doubles, 108 runs scored, 36 stolen bases with a .328 batting average and a 1.001 OPS. All in 122 games. Robert was the USA Today Minor League Player of the Year for 2019. Robert was the first player since 1988 in the minor leagues to hit .325, have 30 doubles, 10 triples, 30 home runs, 90 RBI, 100 runs, 300 total bases and 35 stolen bases. HE was the first player since Joc Pederson to have a 30/30 season in the minor leagues. Robert was finally healthy and broke out in a big way.
So maybe you like the contract that will pay him $8.3 million in 2020. Or a prorated portion of that, as things look now. The biggest reason GM Rick Hahn and the White Sox paid Robert this contract was to buy out his old contract signed as a teen coming from Cuba, exercise several years of control over him (they have two options for 2026 and 2027) and give them an asset at what they hope will be a lower price point contractually through much of this coming decade. Hahn and the White Sox have become famous over the last few years for these kinds of contracts, signing what they hope to be budding stars like Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez to team-friendly deals. These deals could be bargains if those players continue to make gains at the major league level.
But back to Robert. Scouts have marveled at his easy power and swing dynamics. If you find clips of him on YouTube, you will see that the power is plentiful. So is the speed. He’s a great runner with terrific range in center field. His scouting grades are anywhere from 50 (hit tool) to 55 (power, arm, and fielding) to 65 (run). A tool of 50 is an “average” player while 55 is an above average player, and 65 is a perennial all-star player.
How do we project Robert for a season that may only have 80 games, if any? Most of the forecasting tools available to us seem to agree that he could hit .260-.270, with 20+ home runs (lower twenties) and 20+ stolen bases. Some of that depends on whether manager Rick Renteria lets him run, and also a function of where he hits in the lineup. Many project him to eventually be a 1-2 hitter, but maybe not yet in 2020.
While that stat line is tantalizing to both fans and fantasy baseball players, there is some peril here.
Robert did strike out 129 times in 503 at bats last year. That’s a 26% whiff rate. That’s a little higher than you would like to see. The bigger issue to me is his ability to handle curveballs and other off-speed pitches. Robert has shown that he is susceptible to such things and his plate discipline his poor; he will chase pitches out of the zone frequently. That could lead to a far lower batting average; it would not surprise me in the least to see him struggle to hit .240 and struggle to get on base. I do think the home runs and steals will be there given that he has an everyday job without substantial competition, and the White Sox will simply let him play unless he is terrible.
Robert is considered to be a top three prospect for this season in MLB. Time will tell if he becomes the accomplished player his talent would seem to indicate.
My prediction is this: I think Robert comes charging out of the gate, and struggles as pitchers adjust to him. The superstar talent is there. He will adjust back. This year he hits 20 home runs and steals 20 bases, tantalizing us with his power and speed. Robert will join Ronald Acuna as the two best players in baseball by 2023. The important thing to realize is that Robert is the White Sox Plan A. Everything is built around this guy becoming their marquee player. Yes, they have burgeoning guys like Anderson, Jimenez and Yoan Moncada. They have the makings of a monstrous rotation with Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech, with more arms on the way. They added the best defensive catcher in baseball in Yasmani Grandal. They acquired Nomar Mazara in hopes he too can get to the next level of improvement. They have a clubhouse leader in Jose Abreu. But the entire rebuild depends on Luis Robert being one of the best players in baseball. With time, he will be. The talent is all there to be a five tool player.
As a White Sox fan, I can tell you that it’s fun to have something to be excited about again after years of angst, turmoil and incessant losing. I don’t know if they are ready to dethrone the Minnesota Twins, but the talent is at the major league level finally, and maybe better days are coming.
I hope better days are coming for all of us in the midst of these trying times. Keep on keeping on, like Bob Dylan said, and hopefully the next time you hear from me, we are talking about the start of the baseball season. An abbreviated season is better than nothing!