By: Mike Carter
This is one of the most difficult things to write about in baseball. Who is going to win each division? For all the armchair prognosticating we like to do, we know for fact that there will always be surprises. Casual fans know that teams like the Chicago Cubs, the Boston Red Sox, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Houston Astros will continue to win 90+ games barring collapse. But who will be the last teams standing in October? Last year I picked the Cleveland Indians. That pick looked great when they won 21 consecutive games but didn’t work out in the ALDS.
So, what do we do? We look at stats, pitching rotations, lineup construction, the new rookie phenoms. And we make a best guess about who is going to win each division.
Let’s start with the American League East:
Many pundits see this coming down to a two-horse race between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox. Personally, I like the Red Sox lineup better with Mookie Betts (who will be a monster this year), Andrew Benitendi, and the addition of J.D. Martinez. I think the starting pitching is iffy; Chris Sale is dominant, but this team really needs David Price to be their number two, and no one knows what he still has in the tank. A return to decency by Rick Porcello would help tremendously, and I’m not a big believer in Drew Pomeranz, although he won 17 games last year. Meanwhile, the Yankees have a stout lineup of their own, adding Giancarlo Stanton to Aaron Judge in a terrifying development for the rest of the league. Watch Greg Bird break out this year if healthy. The Yankees have a sterling top of the rotation with Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka, while praying for one more hurrah out of CC Sabathia. Their bullpen is deep and nasty. I like the Yankees to win this division. It will be close the whole way.
American League Central: Once again, the Cleveland Indians are the class of this division. The Minnesota Twins have quietly improved with sneaky veteran signings in early March and could surprise; much depends on the development of Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, two highly skilled guys who could be studs…or duds. Cleveland just has too much talent and pitching to boot and should win here.
American League West: While everyone else is on Shohei Otani overload in Los Angeles, the Houston Astros may have gotten better with the addition of Gerrit Cole to an already stacked pitching lineup. With Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, and George Springer…sick. Houston should win this division going away. However, the Angels are much improved with Otani (who will not hit, you read it here first; can’t handle the inside of the plate) and have a really deep, veteran lineup with Ian Kinsler (who may have a huge year) and Zack Cozart. This team is going to catch everything. Did I mention that Mike Trout also plays for them? They could surprise, and the key to their season is Garrett Richards. Watch. The Seattle Mariners will be better, as will the Texas Rangers, but it is hard for to figure out what either team is doing, and what they are trying to be this year.
Wild Card: Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins
AL Pennant Winner: Cleveland Indians. Why? I love their pitching. If Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer progress like they could, and with big seasons from Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez with the midseason add of Francisco Mejia, they take down the Astros in six.
National League East: It’s the Washington Nationals and everyone else. This is their last run with their current group of guys, so it’s all-or-nothing. They will likely lose Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy next year. They will get Adam Eaton for most of the year (who they overpaid for), and a full season of good bullpen work from Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson and Brandon Kintzler. This will prove valuable to them. They also have underrated assets like Anthony Rendon and a potential game-changing superstar in Trea Turner. They will be tough to beat and should trounce this division, although I am intrigued by the New York Mets. Healthy pitching from Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom and advancement from Ahmed Rosario and Michael Conforto make them sleepers for a Wild Card berth.
National League Central: The Chicago Cubs are still the best team here. They do have some question marks. What will they get from Tyler Chatwood? Can Brandon Morrow stay healthy and close games? How will Joe Maddon balance all of the lineup options he has? The rich stay rich and the Cubs challenge to win 95+ games this year. But don’t sleep on the St. Louis Cardinals and the Milwaukee Brewers. Both acquired high-line talents this winter: the Cards pried Marcell Ozuna away from the Marlins, and the Brewers added Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. Does either team have the pitching necessary to compete in a deep division? Stay tuned. Both teams could challenge for 85+ wins and Wild Card berths.
National League West: The Los Angeles Dodgers are a juggernaut. They have depth to survive the loss of Justin Turner for a couple of months and an underrated, talented rotation and the best closer in the game. This team is built to win and should win 100 games again. The Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks will also be very good. I think the Rockies will remain very good, and the Diamondbacks will regress some this year. I like Colorado’s bullpen additions with Wade Davis and Bryan Shaw, and their lineup is full of impressive hitters.
Wild Card: Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers
NL Pennant Winner: Washington Nationals. They have a sense of urgency this year and seem cranky and irritable in Spring Training. Plus, I think they will feed their urgency with a big acquisition to try and put themselves over the top. This is a really solid baseball team with no glaring flaws.
World Series Champion: This is a really tough call, but I think an Indians-Nationals World Series could be epic. Think of the matchups; I’m loving the thought of this. Imagine a Max Scherzer-Corey Kluber matchup for all the marbles, where anything can happen. Wow. Hey, it’s almost time to get this season going, friends! The best game in the world, the grind that is coming, starts in less than a week! Oh wait…I never made a pick…let’s go with the Washington Nationals as this year’s champions!
Award Predictions:
NL MVP: Trea Turner
NL Cy Young: Jacob deGrom
NL ROY: Lewis Brinson
AL MVP: Mookie Betts
AL Cy Young: James Paxton
AL ROY: Francisco Mejia
Thanks for reading! Please leave comments with your picks here! Happy Opening Day!