By: Mike Carter
As a friend put it recently, where Ohtani goes is the $500 million question. Or $250 million question. Or $750 million question. Where he lands, and the courtship likely to run through winter, is anyone’s guess. Picking the Los Angeles Dodgers feels lazy to me. We know that Ohtani is a creature of habit and comfort, and the thought is he would like to stay on the West Coast to be closer to Japan. That could out the San Francisco Giants and Seattle Mariners in play. Signing him will be a franchise-defining move for whoever gets this unicorn. The Chicago Cubs are said to be enamored with him, and if Steve Cohen should decide this weekend that he wants Ohtani, he can blow everyone away with a ludicrous offer.
What we don’t know is how well Ohtani will bounce back from his second Tommy John procedure, or how much longer he can continue to excel as a both a pitcher and a hitter. In truth, it might not matter; even if he never pitches again, his value as a hitter will still draw him a hefty nine figure contract.
Best guess: San Francisco is in desperate need of offense and needs star power. I would not be surprised at all to see Ohtani land in San Francisco, if he decides he does not want to share the star power in Los Angeles with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman.
There will be no shortage of suitors for the services of Aaron Nola. He’s been one of the most durable starters over the last three seasons, and he will be paid commensurately for that. Fantasy players know that rostering Nola can be a headache, but in real life, he’s a quality arm. Nola was 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA in 193 innings. He’s a workhorse, throwing more than 180 innings five times in his career. Many burgeoning teams are in need of a frontline starter: the Baltimore Orioles, the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Chicago Cubs, and the St. Louis Cardinals. There were rumors that Nola and the Phillies were keen on a reunion (and why not with all their recent success), but that the numbers between the two camps are not close. I think they figure it out and he lands back in Philadelphia.
Best guess: Philadelphia Phillies Second guess: Orioles or Cardinals
Gray had a tremendous season for the Minnesota Twins in 2023. Gray was 8-8 with a 2.79 ERA in 184 innings. Gray added in 183 strikeouts and a tidy 1.15 WHIP. At 34, this is likely his last big contract.
Best guess: The Braves could use a durable starter and Gray would seem to fit the bill.
The power-hitting outfielder enjoyed a resurgence in Seattle this past season. Hernandez hit .258 with 26 home runs, seven stolen bases and 93 RBI. The durability is what you are paying for here; Hernandez played 160 games in 2023 after missing 30+ in 2022.At 31, he should still have a couple of seasons of productivity left. You’re also going to get 200+ strikeouts as part of this profile. Hernandez would look great being added to an established lineup where he can hit fifth or sixth and play right field daily. The Dodgers are said to be interested, but their primary focus seems to be on Ohtani. Hernandez could stay in Seattle as well.
Best guess: Many teams could benefit from a power bat, like the Miami Marlins and Cleveland Guardians. Hernandez signs with the Marlins to replace Jorge Soler.
After a bounce back season for Jorge Soler, the Miami Marlins decided not to extend a qualifying offer to outfielder Jorge Soler. Soler hit 36 home runs while hitting .250 with a somewhat paltry 75 RBI. Many teams could use a power-hitting outfielder, including the Cleveland Guardians, Toronto Blue Jays, the Los Angeles Dodgers and maybe even the Tampa Bay Rays.
Best guess: The Blue Jays will be looking to replace the combined efforts of Whit Merrifield and Brandon Belt, and Soler would look good in this lineup hitting behind Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.
Stroman opted out of his deal with the Chicago Cubs. Stroman went 10-9 with a 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 119 strikeouts in 136.2 innings. Stroman will not overpower hitters but gets outs with an excellent groundball rate and provides teams worry-free innings. Stroman would be a great fit on a contending team that needs a reliable arm to eat innings.
Best guess: Stroman stays in the division and goes to the Cardinals after they fail to land Aaron Nola.
This all depends on their roster construction and whether they can land Shohei Ohtani, but Martinez is a beautiful fit for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He’d be likely to stay there if they fail in their pursuit of the DH-only Ohtani. Martinez was up to his old tricks in his age 35 season, hitting .271 with 33 home runs and 103 RBI. I expect a one- or two-year contract for Martinez. The guy still produces runs which is the name of the offensive game. His 135wRC+ was 35% better than league average.
Best guess: Martinez lands a one-year deal to DH for the Los Angeles Dodgers again if they do not sign Ohtani. Should Ohtani sign with Los Angeles, he could land with the Angels across town. I think a potential good fit is the Mets.
Wacha figures to have several suitors after a good 2023. Wacha was 14-4 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.16 WHIP and 124 strikeouts in 134.1 innings. He had almost the same season in 2022 at 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.12 WHIP. At 32, he figures to be able to earn a nice contract this offseason. Wacha does have some durability issues in his career and the 134.1 innings was his first time over 130 innings since 2017. I would look for Wacha to go to a non-contending team taking a chance on a veteran who can show their young guys the ropes.
Best guess: This may sound crazy, but Pittsburgh feels like a good landing spot for Wacha. Call me crazy.
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