By: Mike Carter
Predictions
I find myself wondering if any of the predictions I have made here in this space have ever been correct. I might be truly bad at it, but I give it a shot each year.
Come to think of it, I think I did predict the Washington Nationals World Series title. But that might be it.
AL East
This might be the most competitive division in baseball. The New York Yankees have been besieged by injuries, mostly to their starting pitching, and have quite a few lineup questions to answer. Top to bottom, the Toronto Blue Jays have the most depth and talent, and we know that Tampa Bay will always compete until the end. A sleeper team this year is the Baltimore Orioles. If you haven’t given them much attention the last couple of years, I might suggest that you start this season. Young talent led by Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Grayson Rodriguez could make the O’s a contender as soon as 2023. At the very least they will be fun to watch again. My pick here is the Blue Jays.
AL Central
The Cleveland Guardians won this out of nowhere last year when the Minnesota Twins, besieged by injuries, and the Chicago White Sox, besieged by terrible management, injuries and mediocrity, both disappointed down the stretch. I think this division will be better in 2023, and it will be a battle to the end. The White Sox are built to win this with health, and I will predict that they win the Al Central this season.
AL West
The defending champion Houston Astros reside here and will be tough to dislodge from the top spot. However, the Seattle Mariners lurk, with young phenom Julio Rodriguez leading the way. It’s a toss-up to me on who has the better pitching staff; I will give the slight edge to the Astros, but it’s close. Houston has the oft talked about playoff experience, but they are missing superstar Jose Altuve for at least two months. But they added stabilizer Jose Abreu to their lineup. Best guess here is that the Astros win the division, with the Mariners on their heels. The Mariners should get a Wild Card spot. The Texas Rangers have spent over $800 million in the last two off seasons, but still look like they have some room to grow with young players and an expensive pitching staff with bullpen questions. But they could contend as well. As for the Oakland Athletics…ask my friend Carlos Marcano for a quick summary.
NL East
The much-ballyhooed New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are here, but the Atlanta Braves are still the team to beat in my opinion. The Braves have a lineup adept at run creation, and the best top-to-bottom pitching in the division. The Phillies and Mets are already dealing with serious injuries, and while they have been picked by many to win the division, I have doubts that either team makes the playoffs at this point. I’ll pick the Braves here.
NL Central
The St. Louis Cardinals are the team to beat here. There are two teams in the middle of rebuilds, the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds, and another that is a little further along in their reconstruction in the Chicago Cubs. The Milwaukee Brewers have a nice team with some young talent as well and excellent starting pitching if healthy, but their offensive woes may be too much to overcome here. The easy choice here is the Cardinals.
NL West
The San Diego Padres have signed everyone and seem to have a billion-dollar payroll. But we know their rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers, will be heard from as well. The Arizona Diamondbacks are an interesting team that will need pitching to develop to keep up with their young, developing players, led by rookie sensation Corbin Carroll. The Colorado Rockies are beset with injuries already and will likely finish as also-rans. The Padres seem primed with what could be the best lineup in baseball to win the division.
AL Wild Cards: Seattle Mariners, New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles
NL Wild Cards: Los Angeles Dodgers, Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies
World Series: The Atlanta Braves over the Toronto Blue Jays
To me, individual awards are the toughest to project. It’s easy to look at the rosters of each team and say, “Corbin Burnes will win the NL Cy Young.” But it feels cheap to me in a way; I feel like people read prediction pieces because they want them to be fun and a little outrageous. Maybe I am wrong? Either way, here goes.
AL Cy Young: I just love Kevin Gausman and feel like he continues to fly under the radar as one of the best pitchers in the major leagues. Gausman is a workhorse and will get 180 innings pitched and over 200 strikeouts this season. Alek Manoah will get more attention, but Gausman will provide worry-free innings and be seen as the ace that he is.
NL Cy Young: I think Hunter Greene really breaks out this year as long as he controls his walks. He has a big arm and a live fastball, and it looks like Cincinnati will have no restrictions on him this year. Turn him loose. There will be other, more popular pitchers here, but Greene could really put it together and become the ace the Reds have lacked since the days of Luis Castillo.
AL MVP: Fellow White Sox fans have been waiting for this team to be healthy and put it together like has been foreshadowed in recent years. For the Sox to move from mediocrity to contender, they need center fielder Luis Robert to be the player they envisioned upon signing him several years ago. He’s got ample power and speed, a kind of Byron Buxton type, in more ways than one. With health and 15 games, he’s a potential .300 hitter with 25 home runs and 25 stolen bases. I am looking for him to lead the White Sox back to playoffs and to become a star this year. It’s time.
NL MVP: I love everything about Jazz Chisholm, Jr. He has pure joy for the game, his obvious talent and he’s healthy. I expect a 30/30 season from him, and I think he takes the National League by storm. He’s flying under the radar a bit, and I think the Miami Marlins are going to be better than people think, especially with their vaunted started pitching.
AL ROY: My beloved Chicago White Sox look to be trotting out Oscar Colas in right field this year. He has light tower power and he’s also going to be a vast improvement defensively for them. He could hit 25 home runs with the allotted opportunity. But the best bet here is the aforementioned Gunnar Henderson, who with the opportunity this year, will hit 20-25 home runs, steal 10-15 bases, and help lead the young Orioles to a playoff berth.
NL ROY: There will be lots of talk about Mets’ pitcher Kodai Senga and the Diamondbacks’ Corbin Carroll, who are both going to be excellent players. Jordan Walker made the Cardinal’s Opening Day roster but has not played above AA. The player to watch for me is Cubs’ righthander Hayden Wesneski. Wesneski was just named the fifth starter by Chicago skipper David Ross, and I think he is going to open some eyes this season. The Los Angeles Dodgers’ Miguel Vargas is a sleeper for this award as well.