By: Carlos Marcano Follow me on my Twitter account for more baseball content.
The World Baseball Classic is set to make a return after a two-year forced hiatus due to the Covid-19 pandemic, and baseball fans around the world can’t wait for the tournament to start. The fifth iteration of the international baseball tournament will feature 20 national teams, with all the teams that participated in the 2017 edition automatically qualifying, plus four additional spots. The WBC is scheduled to start on March 8, 2023, and in this article, I will try to give you some odds on each team about their possibilities to make the finals.
Pool A: Cuba, Netherlands, Italy, Panama, Chinese Taipei
Cuba will be one of the teams to watch in Pool A, as they will be looking to build on their success in the 2017 tournament, where they reached the second round. They have a rich baseball tradition and a talented pool of players, which makes them one of the favorites to advance to the knockout stage. Luis Robert, the star outfielder for the Chicago White Sox, is one of the key players to watch on the Cuban roster and he will be joined by a teammate with the Sox, Yoan Moncada. Both have had their struggles, for different reasons, at the MLB level but there’s no doubt that their presence in the Cuban roster will be impactful.
There are some concerns that age will play against Cuba’s odds (a long-time favorite, Yoenis Céspedes is already 37, for example) but having a veteran team can also play in their favor. I give them a 30% chance of making the finals.
Panama is returning to the World Baseball Classic after missing the last two editions, and they will be looking to make a statement in Pool A. They have a talented pool of players, and their roster will feature Major League Baseball players, such as Jaime Barría (Los Angeles Angels) and Christian Bethancourt (Tampa Bay Rays). However, they will face stiff competition from their rivals, and they will need to be at their best to advance to the knockout stage, which I find hard for them to achieve. I say there’s barely a 10% chance they get to the finals.
The Netherlands will also be looking to make a statement in Pool A, and they will be counting on their talented roster to deliver. The team has several MLB players on its roster, including Jurickson Profar, Andrelton Simmons, and Xander Bogaerts, who will be looking to lead their team to the knockout stage. Odds: 15%.
Italy and China Taipei’s chances are less than 1%.
Pool B: Japan, South Korea, Australia, China, Czech Republic
Only European and Asian teams in this group, pool B will be one of the most competitive in the tournament, featuring some of the best teams in the world. Japan will be the team to beat in this pool, as they are the two-time defending champions of the tournament. They have a talented roster that includes some of the best players in the world, including Shohei Ohtani, who has had a sensational season with the Los Angeles Angels, putting them around 40% to make the finals.
South Korea is another team that will be looking to make a statement in Pool B, and they have a talented roster that includes MLB players Kim Ha-Seong of the San Diego Padres and Tommy Edman of the St. Louis Cardinals on the South Korean roster. Still, more than their addition is needed to tilt the odds more than 10% in their favor.
With the unfortunate news of his illness, Australia will surely miss not having Liam Hendriks, the closer for the Chicago White Sox, as one of the key players on the Australian roster. They sport a young and inexperienced roster that doesn’t seem to have enough, on paper, to advance. 5% chances.
China and the Czech Republic should not be able to pass this first stage.
Pool C: United States, Mexico, Canada, Colombia, Great Britain
Pool C will feature several strong teams, including the United States, who won their first WBC championship in 2017. The team will be led by Mike Trout, one of the best players in the world, who will be looking to defend their title. They have a talented roster that includes several MLB stars, including Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Pete Alonso. Although they lost Clayton Kershaw at the last minute, they still have the leading presence of Lance Lynn and Adam Wainwright among other veterans in the pitching staff that keep their chances high, around 70% in my book.
Another team to keep an eye on is Mexico. They have consistently been a strong contender in the WBC and are always a threat to go deep into the tournament. They have a talented roster, including players such as Rowdy Tellez and Luis Urías of the Brewers, as well as veteran pitchers like Oliver Pérez and Taijuan Walker. The team is managed by former Major League player and manager Benjamin Gil, who will be looking to lead his squad to a deep run in the tournament. His chances are around 40% to get to the finals.
Canada is the other candidate with some chance in this group, spearheaded by Freddie Freeman and the top prospect Edouard Julien, and an amazing Matt Brash in their rotation. The rest is a little inconsistent so that minimizes their chances to just 10%.
Colombia and Great Britain have close to zero chances of moving forward.
Pool D: Dominican Republic, Israel, Nicaragua, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela
Pool D features Puerto Rico, who reached the semifinals in the previous two tournaments, and Venezuela, who finished runner-up in 2009. The Dominican Republic is the clear favorite to win the pool, and the Classic; they have a star-studded team featuring Julio Rodriguez (Seattle Mariners), Jose Ramirez (Cleveland Guardians), Juan Soto (San Diego Padres), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Toronto Blue Jays), Manny Machado (San Diego Padres), Rafael Devers (Boston Red Sox) and others.
Even with some last-minute absentees from the pitching staff, like Sandy Alcantara, there is no doubt that they have the first option to win it all; I’m putting them at more than an 80% chance to get to the final stage.
Puerto Rico features Francisco Lindor (New York Mets), Edwin Diaz (New York Mets), Marcus Stroman (Chicago Cubs), and other MLB players, with Yadier Molina on managing duties. Unfortunately, they seem to fall short and their odds are barely 30% for me.
In Venezuela’s case, as winter rumbled on, the question on everyone’s mind was whether Ronald Acuña Jr.’s checkered injury history would cast a pall over his World Baseball Classic prospects. But now, buoyed by the Braves’ satisfaction with his offseason gains, the sensational outfielder appears set to answer the call and showcase his prodigious talents on the grandest stage.
With seasoned veterans like Jose Altuve, Salvador Perez, and the evergreen Miguel Cabrera returning to the fray, and exciting new talents such as Luis Arraez, David Peralta, and Anthony Santander poised to make their tournament debut, the Classic promises to deliver the kind of pulse-pounding excitement that baseball aficionados the world over have come to expect.
And, with an enviable array of arms at their disposal – led by the dynamic duo of Eduardo Rodríguez and Pablo López, and fortified by the reliable Ranger Suárez in relief – the team could well have a pitching staff capable of shutting down even the most explosive of offenses. It’s still to be seen if that’s going to be enough, though, and I’ll mark them to a 50% chance to make the finals.
Israel and Nicaragua will be just guests and their odds are not higher than 10%, between the two of them.
All in all, we are expecting a great competition and a probable winner from one of the Dominican Republic, USA, or Venezuela, but hey, its baseball, anything can happen once the umpire yells “Playball!”.