By: Mike Carter
Jose Abreu gave nine years of his career and his life to the Chicago White Sox and became a fan favorite in the process. He is a tough guy who played every day despite the toll a full season takes on a MLB player. The anointed clubhouse leader and he deserved all the plaudits he received here. A total professional and a guy who took time with his teammates and fans.
Last week, he signed a three-year, $58.5 million contract with the Houston Astros, capping off a mostly brilliant career with the Sox.
My son Jack’s reaction sums up the feelings many White Sox fans had: “No! Please say it is December Fools! He’s been with them my whole life!” Ah, to explain the nature of free agency to a young baseball fan. I feel you, buddy.
It’s always difficult when something ends, and we try to put an endcap on things. We try to attach words, phrases and emotions to the event, while putting things in a historical perspective. Abreu ranks highly in the canon of White Sox history: 243 home runs (third in team history), 863 runs batted in, 697 runs scored, a .292 batting average, .354 on base percentage, .860 OPS, and 31.9 career war. Pretty impressive stuff.
I remember sitting at a local restaurant when I received the news in 2013 that the Sox had signed a big first baseman that many folks knew little about since he had spent his career in Cuba. Skeptics abounded; would this guy be able to hit major league pitching? I think Abreu answered that immediately in 2014: .317, 36 home runs, 107 RBI and a Rookie of the Year award in 2014.
Things end, and often without fanfare or applause. Abreu did not play in the last scheduled game of the 2022 season, and the fans did not get to shower him with their plaudits and admiration.
The gist of it is, the White Sox won two playoff games in his nine-year tenure. The team continued to underwhelm most seasons despite his staunch contributions. I have no evidence in saying this, but I think Abreu felt his time in Chicago was complete, and he was looking to sign with a team that is readymade to win. He did that in signing with Houston.
Here’s the thing for me: putting fandom aside, letting Abreu walk away makes sense for the White Sox and general manager Rick Hahn. The team will move first-round pick Andrew Vaughn to his natural position of first base and give him 600 at bats this year while not trying to make him an outfielder. Current left fielder (when healthy) Eloy Jimenez can move to the designated hitter spot and stop making everyone hold their breath every time a ball gets hit to him. Pundits expect the Sox to acquire another outfielder via free agency to fill left field, while rookie Oscar Colas gets a crack at breaking camp as the starting right fielder. The savings from not re-signing Abreu will be used to acquire a free agent, someone like Andrew Benintendi or Cody Bellinger. And there may be some left over to find a second baseman and move Leury Garcia back to a super utility role. Garcia was exposed playing everyday last year due to a litany of injuries to Jimenez, Luis Robert, Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada.
I feel it’s important to remember that the White Sox played like total garbage last year and were still 81-81. With health and a new manager in Pedro Grifol who seems intent on making sure the team is mentally and physically prepared every night, a turnaround seems possible if not likely. The rotation added depth with upside in Mike Clevinger, a potentially stout bullpen remains, and the health of star players like Jimenez, Anderson and Robert should help.
All this being said, it’s hard to so say goodbye to the guy who has been the emblem of your franchise for nine years. And I know this will be unpopular to say, but this is the right move for the White Sox. While we don’t spend much time looking at advanced metrics in my space here, a look at some of them provide a bit of concern. He still hits the ball hard, but his power has been sapped. Some pundits think the power will rebound hitting into those Crawford boxes in Houston. And it could. But his launch angle percentage has been in slow decline over the last four years (only 8% in 2022), and it seems he has been willing to sacrifice power for better contact (career low 16.1% K percentage). There is nothing wrong with that approach, but he’s also 35 and the bat speed is slowing down and that likely does not recover with age. I think the Astros get one more good year out of Abreu, and then he becomes Yuli Gurriel. There is nothing wrong with that but making large monetary investments in baseball players of this age doesn’t usually pay off for long.
For Sox fans who will disagree, I get it, but let’s look at Vaughn’s Steamer projections for next year:
.266 batting average, 23 home runs, 77 runs batted in, .187 ISO and 2.1 WAR.
Now let’s look at Abreu’s Steamer projections:
.273 batting average, 22 home runs, 89 runs batted in, .175 ISO and 2.4 WAR.
Essentially, it’s a wash. Projections are simply that. But paying almost $20 million a year for this level of production is foolish. The White Sox front office made a good decision here despite what fans’ hearts (and their hearts) tell them. Vaughn is far cheaper and deserves the opportunity.
I wish all the best to Jose Abreu who was a bright light here in Chicago for years, but this is the right move for the franchise.