By: Mike Carter
Judge figures to be the most hotly pursued free agent on the market this offseason on the heels of a season for the ages. The 30-year-old outfielder swatted 62 home runs, knocked in 131, scored a staggering 133 runs, and chipped in 16 steals with a .311 batting average and a video game-like 1.111 OPS. Conventional wisdom tells us that the Yankees can ill-afford to lose their marquee player and one of the best players in the major leagues.
But what will be his cost? At 30, and having been injury prone over the course of his career, who is going to be willing to cough up the contract it will take to get him? Free agent deals are given based on past performance. What teams have the financial freedom to sign Judge?
We know the Dodgers will likely be a player for every big-name free agent out there. Signing Judge though would necessitate moving star right fielder Mookie Betts to another position. There have been some rumblings that they would move him to second base should they sign Judge. Center field could also be an option for one of them should the Dodgers move on from current center fielder Cody Bellinger.
The team that seems most flush with cash and ready to spend it is the Giants. Their president of baseball operations, the talented Farhan Zaid, said no free agent was unavailable to them. Reportedly, the Giants have “only” $83 million in salary on the books next season and signing Judge and plugging him into their right field spot would solve that problem for the next half decade.
My best guess is that if Judge wants to return to New York and finish his career as a lifelong Yankee, a la Derek Jeter, he will find a way to get a deal done with Brian Cashman. If Cashman doesn’t get him back, it could very well cost him his job. If the memories of being booed relentlessly during his playoff struggle linger, Judge will have his pick of suitors, and the team with the most cash on hand, the Giants, could be a big player here.
Recently on a podcast I cohost with Chris Torres and Carlos Marcano, “The Fantasy Baseball Beat,” reporter Chris Cotillo shared with us that resigning Bogaerts was the top priority this season for chief baseball operator Chaim Bloom. The shortstop market is rife with big names, including Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, and Dansby Swanson. We are unsure what this will cost and the market is likely to dictate some of this. The Red Sox signed Trevor Story last season and my thought was that they did this in anticipation of losing Bogaerts this offseason. However, Cotillo says that the team will keep Story at second base, and even if they lose Bogaerts, they could be in the market for one of the other superstars listed above. I expect the Red Sox to move to keep him. In the event they lose Bogaerts, they could also look at the second base market and move Story back to shortstop.
However, Bogaerts will have plenty of suitors should he desire to explore the market fully. The Cubs have made no bones about acquiring a shortstop this season, and Bogaerts would seem to fit there (as would any of the others mentioned here). Bogaerts had somewhat of a down season in 2022, hitting .307 but hitting only 15 home runs and knocking in 743 runs while scoring 84. He’s 30 but has been remarkably durable over his career and figures to still play at a high level for a few more seasons. It also stands to reason that the Mariners could be in play for Bogaerts’ services. My best guess is that the Red Sox attempt to lowball him, as they did this last winter on extension talks, and Bogaerts leaves Boston.
Let’s get the obvious out of the way; he’s an incredible risk heading into his age 35 season. deGrom only started 11 games last year but was fairly magnificent when he was available: 5-4, 3.08 ERA, a miniscule .75 WHIP and 102 strikeouts in 64.1 innings. It’s important to keep in mind that the Mets have a deep wallet owner in Steve Cohen, who figures to outbid everyone else for any player he and GM Billy Eppler deem necessary. It was reported this week that deGrom had interest in the Rangers, who seem to be willing to spend boatloads of money on free agents; they spent half a billion dollars in free agency last winter to finish 68-94. Egads. deGrom is likely to cost $40 million for the next two or three seasons. The Rangers and Chris Young figure to continue to be aggressive; they almost landed Clayton Kershaw last year before he returned to the Dodgers. The Rangers could use an ace to add to their recent acquisition in Jake Odorizzi to join holdovers Jon Gray and Dane Dunning. deGrom makes sense here if he wants to leave New York. It’s also rumored that the Astros could have interest in deGrom as well.
It’s interesting that it came to light that Contreras nearly moved to Houston at last year’s trade deadline. The Astros fired GM James Click yesterday due to some level of consistent disagreement in the front office. It was revealed that he had move ready to get Contreras for starting pitcher Jose Urquidy which was nixed by owner Jim Crane. Would have been a great deal for both teams.
Now, Contreras is free to go wherever he wants, a right given to him by free agency. The White Sox might be looking at a catcher, but they do not figure to be players for Contreras. The Astros still make sense for him, and the Red Sox could be a player here too. My best guess is that he goes to Houston.
No qualifying offer for him from the Yankees. Taillon is an interesting free agent case. He’s never become the ace many expected when he first emerged with the Pirates. But what he has become is a serviceable number three starter; he was 14-5 with a 3.91 ERA last season, with a lower than average 20.7% strikeout rate. While the strikeouts are not plentiful, Taillon walks few batters as evidenced by his paltry 4.4% walk rate. There is a plethora of mid-rotation arms available, and it’s important to recall that Taillon will be 31 this coming season and is a survivor of two Tommy John surgeries. I will be interested to see the kind of contract he gets. The Yankees could be interested in a reunion but not at the qualifying offer price of $19.65 million. A team like the Orioles makes a lot of sense, an up-and-coming squad in need of veteran starting pitching. The Rangers are also in the market for pitching but may have their sights set on a bigger target.
No qualifying offer for him from the Dodgers. He’s an interesting case to me. Heaney had always been big on stuff but somewhat limited in results. He signed with the Dodgers, who stripped him back down to only his fastball while adding a wipeout slider. The results: 4-4 with a 3.10 ERA, and a whopping 110 strikeouts in only 72.2 innings. Therein lies the issue: while mostly excellent when healthy, it’s always a looming issue, that at age 31, isn’t likely to improve with age. Yet that 35.5% K rate grabs your attention, doesn’t it? Any team that signs him may have to limit his innings or use him as a monster two-inning guy out of the bullpen in a fireman role. The team that jumps to mind for me in this regard is the Red Sox, who has some questions in their rotation but a fairly flexible bullpen behind him that could augment his talent. The Dodgers could also make sense to resign him here.
No qualifying offer for him from the Mariners. Haniger is another interesting case to me. He’s a 30-homer bat when healthy, but a series of bizarre injuries the last two years have really sapped his value. Haniger will be 32 this season but figures to have no shortage of suitors who are looking for outfield help. The Guardians make sense if they open the checkbook, which remains to be seen. The White Sox desperately need outfield help, but the White Sox are looking for left-handed bats and Haniger bats right-handed. The Angels also have a huge hole in the outfield and could use him. Don’t count out Seattle resigning him depending on how splashy they want to be this offseason.
Is there a more maligned closer in MLB than Kenley Jansen? All he does is get results despite many people signaling what they this is his imminent demise. At 34 this past season in Atlanta, Jansen earned 41 saves on a 3.38 ERA, still one of the most successful closers in the game. The Rangers make sense, as they like to make moves for big-name players and are looking to contend this season. The Cubs are a possibility as well; the Red Sox could be looking to upgrade the back of their bullpen. It does not appear that he would reup with Atlanta as they have Raisel Iglesias to cover the closer duties there. How about the Yankees if they are not sold on Clay Holmes?
Hot Stove Free Agent Predictions Part 1
Hot Stove Free Agent Predictions Part 3