By Carlos Marcano (@camarcano)
22 years.
Half-of-my-life ago, the Atlanta Braves were in a World Series before today, a series that, by all means, marked the start of the decline of a fabulous run for Atlanta during the 90s, in which they were the almighty team in the NL, even when they only had one championship to show for it.
That year, the arms of Tom Glavine, John Smoltz, Kevin Milwood, and some dude named Greg Maddux, with the added help of starting juggernauts Odalis Pérez, Terry Mulholland, and Bruce Chen, carried the team to their last appearance, before this year, in the October Classic.
20 something years later, this version of the Braves is very different but, in some ways, similar.
The 99’ version won 103 games, more than any other team in all MLB that year; this year’s barely won 88, which made them the team with fewer games won that made it to the postseason in 2021, something that is making some fans (from other teams, of course) start putting in doubt the quality and even if they deserve to be playing the WS.
Of course, they do!
One of the reasons this team has been so successful can be compared to the 99 version: those Braves were fourth, very close, in the NL in homeruns and slugging; in 2021 Atlanta was second in both. The Maddux Crew was fourth in ERA, while The Fried Gang was also fourth in the NL.
It’s all a matter of relativeness.
I am one of those aficionados that believe that pitching is the name of the game and in that regard, I believe Atlanta has the edge for the classic.
Let’s use tonight’s game as an example, a matchup between Charlie Morton and Framber Váldez.
I love Framber, I really do. I have even done analyses about him since a couple of years ago, following his development as a pitcher, and I believe he has a bright future ahead of him.
But tonight, Morton has the upper hand. Not only he was better at striking out and avoiding walks to batters this year; he was also almost a complete point better in FIP than Framber and, having great defenses as both teams do, the difference will be made on how capable are the pitchers to keep the ball inside the park.
Keep in mind that I said, inside the park, not the infield.
I know Framber is the king of the ground ball and that’s one of the main reasons for his success, that’s fine. I’m more concerned about the fact that in the few chances that the ball is not on the ground, it tends to fly out of the park when he is pitching and, did I mention that the Braves were second in homers this year?
To me, this first game will be the most important game of the series. It will set the tone, which I believe will be the same one we have seen in a while, already: homers are kings, and those teams limiting the damage from homeruns are able to live another day.
Or in this case, reigning over everyone else.
My complete predictions:
- Braves will win the series in 5 games.
- Morton will win 2 games and will be the series MVP.
- Luis García will win the only game for Houston.
- Ozzie Albies will be Atlanta’s best batter.
- Carlos Correa will be Houston’s best batter.
- Charlie Freeman will run into the field at some point during the series.