By: Drew Pelto
And just like that, he was gone. Again.
When you’re a fan of a small-market team in a sport without a salary cap, it’s a sentiment you come to know all too well. As a Tribe fan since 1991, I’ve seen the team lose the likes of Albert Belle, Roberto Alomar, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Chuck Finley, Juan Gonzalez, Bartolo Colon, Victor Martinez, CC Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Shin-Soo Choo, Carlos Santana twice, Edwin Encarnacion, Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber, Andrew Miller, and Mike Clevinger either as high-priced free agents or in trades right before free agency.
And now, we can add Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco to that list. It must be nice to be a fan of a team that can just throw money at a problem and if it fails, write it off and keep repeating until it works. Last time the Indians tried that, it got them to the playoffs repeatedly in the late 90s, but ultimately left a financial pit and an empty farm system that took four managers, three GMs, and fifteen years to rebuild into a consistent contender at least briefly.
When you’re a fan of a small-market team in a sport without a salary cap, you get a brief championship window: enjoy the hell out of it because it won’t be open for long. After spending Game 7 of the 2016 World Series in Cleveland hoping to see a parade the next day, I watched Game Three of the 2017 ALDS with my wife’s family here in Texas. The Tribe led the series at that point 2-0. When Greg Bird homered in the seventh inning, I told them that was the end of the Tribe’s window. They thought I was crazy. But the team has yet to win a playoff game since: three straight losses to the Yankees, followed by a three-game ALDS sweep by the 2018 Astros, and a two-game Wild Card sweep by the 2020 Yankees.
And yet in 2021, hope springs eternal with an asterisk. After a World Series appearance four years ago, only Jose Ramirez and Roberto Perez remain on the team. But smart drafting and decent trading has built a roster that might have seen that closed window get propped back open.
When I look back to the 1995 and 1997 Indians World Series teams, what strikes me is a lack of pitching. The lineup could pound anyone not named the Atlanta Braves, but they’d have to win slugfests. The 2021 Indians are built the other way around: pitching heavy and hope to eke out a lower-scoring win.
Carlos Carrasco’s isn’t a huge loss. Smart teams trade from a position of strength and Cleveland is sitting on an incredible pile of starting pitching. It’s why Trevor Bauer, Corey Kluber, and Mike Clevinger have all been expendable. The Indians currently have four solid young starting pitchers. Shane Bieber is coming off a Cy Young Award, the pitching Triple Crown, and the 2019 All-Star Game MVP Award. This ace in the making won’t even turn 26 until early in the 2021 season. Same goes for Zach Plesac (29 starts, 12-8, 3.32 over the past two seasons) and Aaron Civale (22 starts, 7-10, 3.69). And Triston McKenzie won’t even turn 24 until August (6 starts, 2 relief appearances, 2-1, 3.24 late last season). The number five starter spot can easily be filled for cheaper than Carrasco’s $12M– maybe even from in-house with Logan Allen, Adam Plutko, or Cal Quantrill.
The bullpen is likely to undergo some tweaks. Thankfully, Brad Hand has worn out his welcome in Cleveland; despite leading the league with 16 saves last season and an ERA in the low twos, he was incredibly ineffective in non-save situations, blew five of them in 2019, single-handedly cost his team Game Two of the 2020 Wild Card, and was largely responsible for taking a 2018 ALCS Game Three from close and winnable to a blowout and hopeless. James Karinchak will likely step in as the new closer with Emmanuel Clase and Nick Wittgren in setup roles. Depending on that fifth starter spot, either Quantrill, Plutko, or Allen could hold middle-to-long relief roles. Plus, they still have Phil Maton, Cam Hill, and Kyle Nelson ready for short-to-middle roles.
Moving on to offense, let’s start in the places where there will be changes: most obviously on the middle infield. Trading Francisco Lindor hurts: he would probably get listed as one of my five favorite Indians of all-time. But Lindor has been slipping. In 2016, he was a .300 hitter with 15 homers and the Platinum Glove Award. Over the next three seasons, his batting average dipped below .280 despite a rise to 30 homers. 2020 saw the worst dip yet: .258 with 8 homers (this translates to about 20 in a full season) and a serious drop in Range Factor since that 2016 season (4.37 to 3.67). I can’t justify spending $17.5M on that: maybe the Mets can get him right again.
Also gone are Lindor’s Gold Glove double play partner Cesar Hernandez and on-base guru at first base, Carlos Santana. Hernandez got over six million last season and the front office is questioning if that price is worth bringing him back. Meanwhile first base is another place of strength, or at least versatility: it’s a power position and therefore not a place to spend multiple millions on a .199 hitter who was two points away from being in the Tyner Zone (for the uninformed, the Tyner Zone is when your OBP is higher than your SLG, named for Jason Tyner who spent two seasons there and missed it for his career by only nine points).
Two of those spots were filled via Lindor’s trade however: Amed Rosario has mostly played shortstop for the Mets, but there has been talk of shifting him elsewhere: second base and the outfield are the most obvious candidates and I believe you’ll likely see him as the Opening Day second baseman. From the Mets fans I follow on Twitter, the general consensus over the last year has been that he’s still a good player, has a lot ahead of him having just turned 25 with four seasons of experience under his belt, but he may benefit from a change in scenery.
Andres Gimenez is believed to be the real gem of the trade. At 22 years old, he just made his debut last season, hitting .263 with a good glove at multiple positions. Both players have speed: Gimenez was 8/9 on stolen base attempts last season, Rosario has seasons of 19 and 24 thefts. Neither appears to have Lindor’s power potential, but both should provide more offense than Hernandez, or certainly Santana’s 2020 numbers.
First base has options: Jake Bauers, Bobby Bradley, and Josh Naylor all are possibilities, but all three come with questions. Bauers has holes in his swing that trucks are known to drive through: did his time in the minor league camp in 2020 help that? Naylor has a nice bat, but is an absolute unit at 5’11” 250 pounds: how’s his mobility in the field? Is Bradley Major League-ready? He got some limited action last season, but hit .178 with one homer and 20 whiffs to four walks. My personal preference: Naylor.
Third base is the one steady spot on the infield with Jose Ramirez. It’s weird to call a three-time MVP candidate and two-time All-Star grossly underappreciated, but here we are. Averaging 25 homers a season and hitting .280 should be enough to get recognition as one of the top players at his position and yet maybe it’s just me trying not to overrate Tribe players, but it seems like he’s always lived in Lindor’s shadow. I expect to see a breakout 2021 for him– same play, but more recognition.
Let’s move to the outfield. I make zero effort to hide my love for Oscar Mercado. I have tried to push for a hashtag to trend about being #MoistForMercado every time he does something great; sadly, it has not taken off. 2020 wasn’t the best for Mercado, hitting .128 after a .269 season with 15 HR in 2019. However, he was also being yo-yoed between the big club and the minor league camp and lost his starting job, making it hard to get into a groove. I believe he can bounce back; you may see him as the starting center fielder with Delino DeShields currently a free agent.
Jordan Luplow also took a step backward in 2020, reverting to numbers similar to his time as a Pirate after the best season of his career in 2019. He may be another case where he just needs to be comfortable and get into a groove. Seeing as he only played 29 games out of 60, that can be tough. I have hopes, but I also would keep a short leash.
The third starting outfield spot is pretty well open: Bradley Zimmer, Daniel Johnson, and either Bauers or Naylor could take it. You might also see a re-signing of Deshields or Tyler Naquin. Outfield is definitely this team’s weakest spot; and I don’t like it. Fortunately, they have some financial flexibility right now: trades and free agent signings are all possibilities to help bolster that.
Behind the plate, Roberto Perez has the catcher’s spot-on lockdown. What he lacks in offense (.212 career average, but .239 with 24 HR once he became an everyday player) he makes up for by being the best defensive catcher in baseball over the last two seasons. He handles the pitching staff well, he’s thrown out 41% of could-be base stealers over the last two seasons, and is consistently named as the best at blocking balls in the dirt. You can afford a loss of offense when you have that level of defense. Austin Hedges likely has the backup spot locked up as well: he has a similar lack of offense with solid defense.
I’ve covered the outfield bench pretty well; infield bench and DH both seem pretty well set too. Yu Chang has a spot as a reserve infielder locked up: he can play all the non-first spots well, and while his bat leaves much to be desired, that’s a trait you’re seeing all over this team. It’s passable at least. This team has enough versatility that only one reserve is necessary: multiple players can play first base, and the other four infielders can each play every non-first position effectively. Franmil Reyes is THE big bat in the lineup at DH with some spot-playing in the corner outfield spots.
Overall, this is going to be a rebuilding season but it could be a fast rebuild. The Indians have youth on their side: Roberto Perez is their oldest player and he just turned 32 in December. If they come together quickly, you could see a team that runs the Central for years to come. However, there are four other teams out there– one with similar young star power in the White Sox– who have things to say about that. This is an organization looking at a lot of change: roster rebuilding, a name change in a year, and with their stadium lease running out after the 2023 season… could a new home follow?
Cleveland has the pitching to win the pennant, but their offense is bargain basement. I have faith in the readiness of their recent young acquisitions and predict a somewhat optimistic third place finish for the team in 2021. But whether they finish closer to second or fourth will be an effective barometer on what will happen as to whether the rebuild is a quick one that props the same window of opportunity back open, or just the beginning of an extensive remodel.