By: Mike Carter
I have to gloat for ten seconds. If you read my piece on playoff predictions last month, you saw that I actually picked BOTH combatants in the World Series, even though I picked the wrong team to win it all. It felt good to be right about something, anything, in this insane 2020. I hope you ae all staying happy and healthy out there!
Now that the abbreviated baseball season is over and we have crowned a new champion in the Los Angeles Dodgers, the work begins for those teams still trying to climb that mountain. Real-life general managers begin the arduous task of analyzing their team’s needs and building the best roster possible for 2021.
Those real-life GMs will be faced with a number of questions as they address the open free agency period. How do they value the 60 game season when assessing talent? Will owners open their checkbooks and pay for premium talent? Will there be any decrease in price for these talented players? Will there be shorter term contracts with higher dollar values? Will we get to see a full season in 2021, or will the Covid continue to severely restrict all of our daily lives?
The fact is, none of us know, but it doesn’t stop amateur GMs like m from trying to determine the best fits for top free agents this winter. Check out some of my picks below, and feel free to leave your own thoughts here as well.
George Springer (Braves)
He is the best outfielder on the market and arguably the best bat out there. He’s 31 and a free agent for the first time, likely looking for a big pay day. Expect a four- or five-year deal for him, and that he looks to play for a contender. Springer profiles better in right field as he ages. He would be a perfect fit in Atlanta: middle of the order hitter, good outfielder, great playoff pedigree on a clear playoff team, with clear 30+ homer power. Good fit especially if they do not retain Marcell Ozuna.
DJ LeMahieu (Yankees)
What a stud he has been in the middle of the New York Yankees lineup these last two years. A total bargain for two years and a meager $26 million commitment. The multipositional ability is a significant value boost for him. It’s hard to see the Yankees letting him go, and perhaps if they let Tanaka, Paxton and Gardner walk, they can afford LeMahieu and use him all over the field. My guess is a four-year deal for him, with a significant pay raise, and that he stays in New York. Can they afford him? Better question is, can they afford to lose him?
Marcus Stroman (Angels)
Stroman is a great enigma. He has the stuff to be a number two starter but has consistently been a three or four when healthy. He chose to sit out during this Covid year, which may hurt his value, but also provided him a chance to finally get healthy. Stroman was nursing a calf injury this summer. The question is, what does he command on the open market, which may be suppressed due to owners tightening their coiffures?Stroman was 10-13 in 2019 but his peripherals were good with a 3.22 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. He doesn’t dominate with strikeouts but could be very valuable on the right team. I think someone will give him a multiyear deal. The Angels make sense to me; they have a desperate need for starting pitching if they hope to stop wasting the prime years of demigod Mike Trout.
Justin Turner (Dodgers)
Turner is 35 and in play for one more big payday. He’s arguably been the heart of the Los Angeles Dodgers the last few years. While difficult to imagine him playing in another uniform, does LA’s Andrew Friedman pay up when he has Edwin Rios waiting in the wings? The Dodgers have so many parts. They can live without him, especially when you consider the Mookie Betts contractual commitment, and the coming ones for Cody Bellinger and Walker Buehler, among others. Who could use a terrific glove and a middle-of-the-order bat at third base? I don’t see Turner going to a rebuilding team. Turner is a Los Angeles area native who could choose to stay close to home, perhaps just to play out another couple of years there. However, what if a team like the Washington Nationals (who need a third baseman) came calling with a three-year deal and are willing to overpay? Would Turner play a continent away? Would he sign another team-friendly deal? I’d lean Dodgers here but do not discount Turner jumping for one more big contract.
Nelson Cruz (Twins)
I do not see Minnesota losing him, even if it takes a two-year deal. Cruz continues to cheat Father Time. He’s 40; when the end comes, it may come quickly. Be aware. But he looks terrific still, and I think he will want to stay in the Twin Cities.
Jackie Bradley Jr. (Phillies, Cubs, Astros)
My guess would be that “JBJ” waits to see where top prize Springer signs. Bradley Jr. is one of the best center fielders in the game. He helped win a World Series in Boston in 2017 and may be looking for greener pastures. JBJ would look terrific in Philadelphia with the Phillies, and if the price is right, the Chicago Cubs could really use his help. Maybe even Houston if Springer leaves? I think he makes most sense in Philly.
Corey Kluber (White Sox)
Call me crazy, but I think Kluber is a perfect fit for a contending Chicago White Sox team. They desperately need an excellent third starter, and a healthy Kluber with ace Lucas Giolito and Dallas Keuchel looks mighty good. Kluber will have to settle for a one year “prove it” deal, which is perfect for the White Sox as they wait for one of their other young pitchers to mature into a reliable starter (Dylan Cease, Dane Dunning and/or Michael Kopech). They are ready to win now. Recall the last time Kluber was healthy, he was third in the Cy Young voting in 2018. Can he recapture the form that made him a top starter?
Alex Colome (Red Sox)
Colome has been an effective closer despite not having the prime “stuff” many teams prefer in their closers. Colome does not get many strikeouts and interest in him may be limited to a short-term deal. Colome had 12 saves this year for a playoff team, essentially throwing his cutter a whopping 72% of the time. The White Sox could retain interest but could turn the job over to elite setup man Aaron Bummer, or sign a guy like Liam Hendriks or maybe even Kirby Yates. The Boston Red Sox will be in search of a second tier closer and Colome fits the bill. Maybe he would even fit on the North Side of Chicago? Philadelphia could have interest for the dumpster fire that was their bullpen in 2020, but I think they will spend up and nab someone like Hendriks. Boston is a soft-landing spot for Colome.
Hot Stove Free Agent Predictions Part 1
Hot Stove Free Agent Predictions Part 3