By: David Washburn
This offseason, if Zack Wheeler can get paid $118 million dollars for 5 years after being injured for the majority of his career and putting up non-elite numbers, while also turning down an offer for MORE MONEY from the White Sox… What can we expect Madison Bumgarner to get paid this offseason?
This is not a post about Zack Wheeler. But it is scary to see that a guy who is largely unproven in the major leagues for any extended period of time is getting this kind of money when a former Cy Young winner like Dallas Keuchel and one of the best closers of the decade Craig Kimbrel sat out half of 2019 because of the silly compensation pick rules that handcuff teams from signing these guys. Of course, the Wheeler situation is different because he did not receive a qualifying offer from the Mets.
Madison Bumgarner is no doubt going to get fat paid, but that is based on the Wheeler logic. MadBum is older. He is experienced. He has 3 World Series championships, and his most notable trait is his postseason dominance. It is easily his take-away impression when you think of Madison Bumgarner. This guy may give up a ton of home runs in the regular season, he may even hit a few of his own, but one thing no one can take away is the fact that when you need a guy to step in and win a big game that has meaning, he is the guy you want to hand the ball to.
Madison Bumgarner is sporting a 3.13 career ERA right now and that is a sparkling stat considering his lengthy career at this point. He had 2 seasons where he spent lot of time injured and didn’t look like the guy, we know but looking at his career numbers he has several 200+ inning seasons, he is approaching the 2000 K mark. This past season we seen a more “middle of the rotation” version of MadBum though. He ended the 2019 campaign 9-9 with a 3.90 ERA. He managed to pitch every game though which is an encouraging sign, but have we possibly seen the best he has already?
If you are playing armchair GM, and you’re spending your armchair money on the big free agent splash… Is MadBum a guy you’re looking to pay $23+million per year?
Certainly, he is a proven veteran and it seems disrespectful to not pay him at minimum what the unproven 44-38 career W/L, 3.77 ERA, 700+ K, make-up that is the 29-year-old Zack Wheeler… Right?
Teams are starting to be more willing to non-tender position players who produce less than 2.0 WAR, I think it is possible that analytics and front office guys are weighing the best and worst versions of MadBum and toying with the different variables.
Does MadBum get signed to a short-term 2-3-year deal? Or do we think there is a contending team out there willing to take a longer plunge on the 4-time All-Star?
We still have lots of moves and signings to happen this offseason. Stephen Strasburg, Gerrit Cole, Dallas Keuchel, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Wade Miley. Where does MadBum fall on this list of free agents, experienced starting pitchers?
My ultimate prediction is that MadBum will be a hired gun on a series of short deals where teams hope to contend and get that postseason cheat-code version of Madison Bumgarner.
With my way-too-early prediction I think the Yankees will get one of the high value starters in Cole or Strasburg, so my expectation is that MadBum signs with….
The Angels for 2 years at 53 million. I also have a feeling that the Braves could be a good spot as well at the 2-year commitment thinking.
The current rumors have the Reds connected to him and they are currently spending money which is something you don’t see them do in the offseason so that is a possibility as well.
The Winter Meetings are next up, and the Hot Stove has already been hotter than the last 2 off seasons so this is exciting for baseball fans. Let’s see some actions!
Who do you want to sign MadBum? And does he have more in the tank?