By Andy Nopper:
We have all seen an abundance of relief pitchers used this postseason and in years past to some extent. This is sparked from what is known as “the opener.” A previously rarely used strategy where a team uses a reliever to start the game and follows him up with a Long relief pitcher or #5 starter. The idea is that it gives you a high leverage reliever in a big inning and allows your starter or long man to settle in avoiding an offensive rush to start the game.
It makes sense, mostly because it gets you through one of the toughest parts of the lineup (if not the toughest). Ideally with relative ease. It also helps to avoid a starter simply dealing with jitters, trying too hard, and getting too amped up and not coming back down.
There are certainly statistics to back up the change in ideology. The average ERA this season across the major leagues in the first inning is 4.86. That is at least 0.12 higher than any other inning and noticeably higher than the overall average of 4.51. This is not a new trend either since 2000 there have been only three seasons, 2001, 2004 & 2009, in which the average ERA of the first inning was not the highest single inning ERA.
For these reasons it is hard to fault teams for wanting to avoid the first inning surge, especially when it comes down to your number 5 starters. At some point, however your relievers get worked far too hard. The bullpen ERA in 2019 was the highest since 2000 which was the height of the steroid era and marked one of the worst seasons for pitching stats ever. As well, relievers logged more innings than any season since 2000 so the trend is clear. In today’s game where video is so readily available and scouting reports are incredibly in depth, it doesn’t make sense for every team to employ the opener or bullpenning strategy.
Speaking of which, this idea of bullpenning moves far beyond the opener strategy. As teams restrict rotations in the playoffs, they become three or four man rotations as opposed to the more typical regular season five man rotations. This leads teams to tough decisions. Put one of your top starters in on short rest, or employ a similar strategy to the opener, the bullpen game.
This is a game where you start a reliever with the hopes that he can go multiple innings, but you rely primarily on arms from your bullpen as needed. Let’s look at our world series teams. Washington utilized primarily a four-man rotation mostly cutting down the need for bullpen games. They used Scherzer, Strasburg, Anibal Sanchez and Patrick Corbin (Joe Ross due to injury). This is a more traditional setup and has its positives and negatives.
Houston on the other hand had a dominant top three and primarily used just those three and then a bullpen game. They’ll use Verlander, Cole and Greinke, then the fourth game is a bullpen game. Both approaches allowed for different flexibilities. For Washington, they were able to use Strasburg and Scherzer, there two aces, more often if needed in relief as they had more rest time between starts. Houston relied heavily on there bullpen having strong performances as their starters weren’t as flexible with regards to relief appearances.
Based on this you would assume that Washington had the advantage out of the gate and that isn’t necessarily the case. There are times bullpenning can definitely pay off and times it doesn’t. The idea of Houston using strictly relievers for a game actually can offer much more freedom in a series. There’s no need to ever let a starter “settle in” with a mediocre first inning or two you can simply put the best pitcher in the best scenario as needed.
Washington, in this there first World Series showed that to be there biggest (maybe only) downfall. This is where my opener argument and bullpenning argument join together. Why did Houston take a lead? They allowed just four runs in the first three innings across all 7 games, and not a single run until at least the fourth in there 3 straight wins. This allowed the offense to flow and work freely without fret of a deficit. Part of it had to do with the stellar pitching of the Houston starters, perhaps even most of the credit is due for them but where the two teams certainly differed is at the bottom of the rotation.
Of course, this isn’t to say that bullpen games should always be used, it needs to be a balance. The best example of that idea was in the ALCS. When Chad Green took the mound in game 6 it marked the fourth time the Astros offense had seen him that series. Throughout the Major League season there was a trend across the league, try to get your pitcher out before the third time through the order unless he’s doing very well. The reason is that the third time through, opponents batting averages are .269, the first two times through? .253.
Unfortunately for the Yankees the trend is even more drastic among Relief pitchers. The first two times facing a relief pitcher in a single game, .260, the third and further, .302. Now as much as these are single game stats, the same applies for the postseason. So many games in a row against the same team. It’s as if it’s just one long game, so seeing a relief pitcher four times and for multiple innings in two of those times gives the offense a huge boost. Now, the evidence as provided tells me what it should tell you.
One: The opener is a great idea in theory for teams that can, and need, to make it work. Tampa Bay utilized it effectively because Ryan Yarbrough was a solid option to go deep into the game after the opener was removed. If that option isn’t there you’re only needlessly taxing your bullpen.
Two: bullpen games should be employed with caution during the regular season. using strictly relievers can set your bullpen back a few days so it needs to be worth it and a good situation.
Three and most importantly: Employ the strategies that work for your team. Houston has a number of very solid bullpen arms. They can afford to utilize consistent bullpen games in the postseason without letting the opposing team see too much of any one pitcher. Washington has a smaller number of trustworthy bullpen arms so they understand they have to use the bullpen as sparingly as they can. If you have the arms to use then use them, if you don’t, then unfortunately you may need to rely on a starter even if he’s not at his best.
Just because some teams can make these systems and strategies work doesn’t mean every team can, but to simply adopt these techniques like the Yankees for example even though they didn’t fit the quality of the bullpen is just making it harder in the long run. To me that’s a big reason why the Nationals run is so spectacular. They, on paper don’t have nearly the bullpen of the Astros, they even gave up some big runs early due to the heavy use of the starter, but they still hung on and performed. Even after a 2 run first they held on, pitchers settled in and, for the most part, pitched incredibly well.
I believe bullpenning will grow and become more and more popular, if you have the pieces to do so, as it makes the most sense, both from an early inning perspective and a must win game scenario where you can’t hesitate to use the best available arm. Gone are the days of the starting pitcher and in is the era of the relief pitcher. For better or for worse.