By: Mike Carter Follow me on Twitter/X for more baseball content.
1. The Texas Rangers do not make the playoffs after winning the 2023 World Series.
The Rangers, fresh off a surprising World Series win, do not make the playoffs in 2024. The reason for this? A lack of starting pitching depth resulting in a bridge too far to cross. Even with the development of potential star players Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford, the failure to land a stop starter or augment a thinner bullpen with more star power ends their season at 84-78 and on the outside looking into the playoff picture. It feels foolish to not have added to the rotation and waiting on veterans Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer to regain health that may not return at their ages and with their checkered injury histories.
2. The Chicago White Sox will have the worst record in baseball.
Many folks, this writer included, fail to see the long-term vision for this long-term history of organizational failure. A team with pitching questions sold their best pitcher for prospects. A team with questionable talent and even more questionable desire and baseball intelligence moved in from supposed team leader Tim Anderson. Veteran additions this offseason include Paul DeJong, Nicky Lopez, Mike Soroka, Chris Flexen, Kevin Pillar and Robbie Grossman. It could be a historically bad season on the South Side, and I predict they are the worst team in major league baseball this season, despite the inclusion of the Colorado Rockies and Oakland Athletics. General manager Chris Getz has said he wants to remake the team’s culture and be more solid defensively and fundamentally, but it is hard to see how they are any better than last year’s 61-win team.
3. Jazz Chisholm becomes the most valuable player in all of baseball.
For Chisholm, the talent is there. What has been missing is the health and consistency. With improved health this season, and if he is able to play 150 games, Chisholm will be in the MVP consideration in the National League and be one of the best players in all of MLB. He’s never played more than 124 games at the major league level, but in that season, he hit 18 home runs and stole 23 bases. Last year, in only 97 games, he was already at those numbers before succumbing to injury. A season with 600+ at bats could easily yield a 30/30 season, maybe even better, especially in the stolen base department.
4. Chris Sale regains his stardom pitching for the Atlanta Braves.
Sale was traded to the Atlanta Braves this offseason for the talented Vaughn Grissom. Sale only threw 102.s innings last year, but the skills were still there: 29.4K%, 33.5 chase %, a .211 batting average against. He had 125 strikeouts in those 102.2 innings, with six wins and a 4.30 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. The xERA was 3.61. With health and proper usage, Sale is only 34 and could be a second ace on team with a deep pitching rotation led by Spencer Strider, Max Fried and Charlie Morton.
5. The Detroit Tigers win the AL Central for the first time since 2014.
Take a look at the roster and you will some young, developing hitters: Spencer Torkelson, Riley Green, Parker Meadows and Kerry Carpenter. Another potential young star is second baseman Colt Keith, a name that sounds like he is on the country music charts. Add in the health of their young pitchers, led by ace-in-waiting Tarik Skubal, and you have the makings of a talented team. If they get anything out of their starting pitching, which added veterans Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda, they could win the AL Central with ese.
6. Cody Bellinger disappoints in his return to the Chicago Cubs and does not approach his remarkable 2023 season.
And the Cubs do not make the playoffs, in large part because of this. The Cubs needed to add more, not just retain what they had in 2023. Bellinger will reprise his role as the de facto team leader, but the National League catches up to him this year. Bellinger hit .307 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases with an incredible 15.7 K%. Yet a deeper dive shows some flaws under the hood: a 10th percentile hard hit rate and his average exit velocity was only in the 22nd percentile at 87.9 MPH. Any normalization in K rate while continuing to not hit ball hard could lead to regression for Bellinger. A return to a batting average in the 240s and a reduction in counting stats could be coming. Even still, he remains a valuable player for the Cubs and for fantasy players in many formats.
7. Ceddanne Rafaela wins the American League Rookie of the Year award in 2024.
Rafaela won a job with an excellent Spring Training. The young speedster will start in center field for the Boston Red Sox. Here’s the thing: even if Rafaela does not hit right away, he could be one of the best defensive outfielders in all of major league baseball. That great defense means he will play, and the Boston Red Sox, as the worst team in the AL East, have no reason to not play Rafaela. Expect a .260 batting average, 15-18 home runs, and over 30 stolen bases.
8. Jung Hoo Lee wins the National League Rookie of the Year award in 2024, and also wins the National League batting title.
Lee will bat leadoff for an improved San Francisco Giants team in 2024. He is a veteran of the KBO who at 26 is just hitting his prime. Lee could easily have a higher walk rate than strikeout rate, and I predict he will have double-digit home runs and stolen bases while hitting well above .300. Lee never hit less than .324 in the KBO. In 2022, Lee had 23 home runs and 113 RBI to go along with a .349 batting average, with his excellent eye and his impressive bat-to-ball skills, look for Lee to be a hitting machine for the Giants in 2024.
9. The World Series winner will be the Baltimore Orioles.
Maybe that is not so bold but hear me out. The Orioles not only have a great nucleus of talent led by Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson but added ace Corbin Burnes this winter. By stockpiling talent consistently, along with the continued development of Jackson Holliday, the Orioles have a pipeline coming. Add to that the idea that they can then use that nearly ready MLB talent to acquire what they need this summer, and you have a team gelling at the right time who can then go out and add a rental at the trade deadline this summer. They will have the resources to be able to add another top starter, like Jesus Luzardo from the Miami Marlins, or add a premium outfielder like Luis Robert from the Chicago White Sox. They are in prime position and could contend for a World Series title as early as this season, even if they do not win the fierce AL East.