By: Mike Carter
Another year has come and gone in major league baseball with a bevy of surprises and great moments: Albert Pujols unexpected assault on 700 home runs, Miguel Cabrera’s quest for 3000 hits, the exploits of Shohei Ohtani, and Aaron Judge setting an American League record with 62 home runs. What a season.
And we are set for more surprises and moments as the playoffs start on Friday.
What do you need to know about this year’s expanded playoff series? It’s different from years past. Let’s give you a quick bullet point list of the setup:
- The Wild Card round is now a best-of-three series, which if you have ever read my stuff on the playoffs, you will know I have been calling for many years now.
- There is a third Wild Card team in each league. The top two division winners have first-round byes. The third division winner plays the lowest-seeded Wild Card. The other two Wild Card winners play each other in a best-of-three format.
- The extra inning rules are no longer valid in the playoffs. Hence, there is no more “ghost runner” starting the tenth inning at second base. Truth be told, I am one of the handful of fans who actually enjoyed this rule.
- The top two seeds in the American League are the Houston Astros (1) and the New York Yankees (2), both of whom have first-round byes.
- First round combatants (best of 3): Tampa Bay Rays (6) at Cleveland Guardians (3)
- First round combatants (best of 3): Seattle Mariners (5) at Toronto Blue Jays (4)
- The top two seeds in the National League are the Los Angeles Dodgers (1) and the Atlanta Braves (2), both of whom have first-round byes.
- First round combatants (best of 3): Philadelphia Phillies (6) at St. Louis Cardinals (3)
- First round combatants (best of 3): San Diego Padres (5) at New York Mets (4)
- ALDS (best of 5): Mariners/Blue Jays winner versus Astros
- ALDS (best of 5): Rays/Guardians winner versus Yankees
- NLDS (best of 5): Phillies/Cardinals winner versus Braves
- NLDS (best of 5): Padres/Mets winner versus Dodgers
Got it?
Predictions
I think I have been right once when I picked the Washington Nationals in 2019. It’s a kind of fool’s errand to pick a winner because there are so many variables that go into this pick. At the end of the day, I look at the team that is most balanced, with the best pitching and defense, and try pick using logic rather than emotion.
Wild Card Rounds:
- Guardians over Rays: I love the Guardians and how they play the game. They take advantage of mistakes, have a nice balance of players and a burgeoning star in Andres Gimenez. But the real story here for me is Jose Ramirez. He plays the game with a passion that makes you think he is fighting for his roster spot, not that he has a nine-figure contact in hand. I think the Guardians are the better team here.
- Blue Jays over Mariners: I so badly want to pick the Mariners and have them march through this playoff bracket. Let’s face it: they have the pitching to do it. But I like the Blue Jay to win the short series as I think they have more offensive firepower in their lineup. The Mariners are coming into the playoffs banged up in their outfield. The player to watch for me here in Julio Rodriguez, who is already a superstar in the league. This one could go either way, but I will cast my lot with the Blue Jays and the scorching hot Bo Bichette.
- Cardinals over Phillies: The Cardinals are a feel-good story as their trifecta of Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright hit the home stretch of their careers this week. That being said, the Cardinals have a pretty good team around those guys in Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. While the Phillies boast some good bats in Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos, their pitching leaves them vulnerable here. I will go with the Cardinals.
- Mets over Padres: The Mets did kind of limp to the finish line, but still won 100 games in winning a Wild Card berth. Any team that can go into a best of three tournament with Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer will have a puncher’s chance at the very least. I think the Mets outlast the Padres here especially with the home field advantage.
ALDS:
- Astros over Blue Jays: This could be a really fun series but I think the depth and experience of the Astros will get them past the upstart Blue Jays.
- Yankees over Guardians: The Yankees are a tough team for me to figure out. They have the aforementioned Judge and a bevy of other talented, experienced hitters on this team. They also feature the dare-I-say underrated Gerrit Cole. What gives me pause is the current state of their bullpen, with no clear cut closer in my opinion and a bunch of question marks. But I think their depth will allow them to get by the Guardians.
NLDS:
- Braves over Cardinals: I know it will be de rigueur to pick the Braves to win the whole thing, and I get that. They have a terrific team led by the electric Ronald Acuna Jr. and a great infield led by Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson and Matt Olson. I think they have better and deeper pitching than the Cardinals and will survive a long series with them.
- Mets over Dodgers: I have been boring up until now and have not picked any upsets, but I am going with the Mets to overtake the Dodgers. Why? I am concerned about the health of the Los Angeles rotation. Besides Julio Urias and Tyler Anderson, is anyone healthy enough to start a playoff game? Add in that they removed Craig Kimbrel from the closer role and now manager Dave Roberts will be playing matchups instead of a true closer (unless someone like Evan Phillips or Brusdar Graterol develops into that in the next two weeks), and you have a recipe for the most talented team to get taken down. I would not want to have to beat the aforementioned deGrom and Scherzer in short series. Picking the Mets here.
ALCS:
- Astros over Yankees: This is the matchup I really want to see. The two most powerful teams in the AL going head-to-head. Two veteran teams with powerful offenses clash here. The difference to me between the Astros and the Yankees is the starting pitching. In my opinion, the Astros have the best rotation in baseball. And I just have this gut feeling that a resurgent Justin Verlander is going to be really tough in every series. The Astros also have a variety of weapons in their bullpen that will be able to get key outs for them. I am going with the Astros.
NLCS:
- Braves over Mets: The Braves are deep and talented and beat a Mets team that tantalizes but doesn’t have enough on offense if Pete Alonso is silenced. Look for the Braves to repeat as the NL champions.
World Series:
- Astros over Braves. After having studies this, I feel like the Astros are the most balanced team with the best pitching top to bottom. As we all know, pitching usually wins in the playoffs. Justin Verlander appears to be a man on a mission, and he’s bringing a gaggle of other arms with him: Lance McCullers, Jr., Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Bryan Garcia, to name just a few. Add in some professional hitters like Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker, and you have a winning recipe. And personally, having met Dusty Baker a couple of times in person, I would love to see him get a championship as he nears the end of his career. Because I have picked them, that means they probably will not win. But I do think the Astros have the most balanced team in the tournament.
No matter. Enjoy this special time of year. I hope you are able to take some time over the next few weeks and enjoy the playoffs. As for me, I hope to be watching games with my fantasy baseball friends at First Pitch Arizona the first week of November. If you happen to be there, please stop by and say hello!